How to Foresee and Overcome the Crises 

 

How to prevent a short circuit occurrence? Electricians know the solution: monitor the insulation resistance. This is done on the ships. Over there, the electrical systems operate under terrible conditions of high humidity and salinity of the air. Such an atmosphere greatly reduces insulation resistance and creates conditions for short circuiting. Therefore, between the trips to the sea electricians dry the insulation, and while in the sea they constantly monitor its resistance.

 

What is the economic analogue of “insulation resistance”? The purpose of isolation is to prevent resources (electrons) from moving in the wrong direction, past target elements. Do not allow resources to be used without any benefit.

 

In a systemic crisis, an aimless, useless consumption of resources begins under the guise of "simulating the activity." The output of such activity is zilch.

 

In order to prevent a systemic crisis one need to anticipate it, find the means to overcome it (resolve), and take the necessary actions in a timely manner. It is necessary to identify the place where the insulation resistance has dangerously decreased, find a way to avoid insulation breakdown and timely conduct the preventive measures. Is it possible? Fortunately, yes. Opportunities for this exist. Alas, so far only few people know about existence of appropriate approaches. We should convince people who can make the right decisions in a timely manner and take the necessary actions that it is worth doing.

 

Signs of Systemic Crisis

 

What signs indicate an emerging or developing crisis, a “short circuit”? Most often, this is a mismatch between the driving force of development and real opportunities.

 

For example, the driving force behind the development of transport is the wish of consumers to be at the target as soon as possible, to travel a distance “from point A to point B” as fast as possible. But the real capabilities of the human driver at some moment cease to correspond to this driving force. Limited speed of reaction to events, limited capacity of short-term memory, limited ability to foresee and understand the intentions and maneuvers of other participants in the traffic flow, fatigue, exposure of the human brain to the effects of alcohol, drugs and drugs hinder the further development of transportation and cannot resolve its main problems: accident rate, human casualties, traffic jams, etc.

 

The mismatch between the real capabilities of human brain and the growing requirements of driving force of development has create an insurmountable barrier to further improvement of vehicles. There was a "short circuit" between the real capabilities of the human brain and the safety of automotive traffic. A systemic crisis has arisen, now people call it the “automotive industry crisis”. It began in 2005. The bankruptcy of the “three sisters”  in 2009 was a vivid manifestation of this crisis.

 

The government, however, did not leave them in trouble, did not let them collapse and bury the country under their rubble. They injected the fresh financial blood into them, conducted a “quantitative easing”, gave them a chance to avoid bankruptcy. GM (General Motors) was jokingly called Government Motors because the US government became one of its main shareholders.

 

Thanks to these injections, the “three sisters” survived the crisis. The Japanese auto industry promptly proposed solutions to overcome this crisis, and the Americans immediately picked up ideas that they had abandoned in 2005.

 

Systemic Crisis Resolution

 

The general principle for resolving a systemic crisis is to reorganize the affected section of economic circuit so that a short circuit that has already occurred does not recur. It means to create conditions under which the inconsistency that led to this crisis cannot reoccur.

 

For example, the systemic crisis of automotive transportation could be resolved in the only way: instead of loading the human brain more and more with difficulties associated with traffic, begin to unload it gradually bu transferring the car control functions to an autopilot that can communicate with autopilots of other cars. Driving the car becomes safer, more efficient and easier. A new era has begun in the development of automotive transportation: the gradual automation of driving. Gradually, autopilots begin to communicate with each other. The role of driver is gradually simplified, facilitated, but at the same time, the safety and efficiency of vehicles are gradually increasing.

 

Why was it impossible to implement such a solution before? Then, probably, we could not have brought the situation to crisis. So far, experience has shown that such a solution in itself, without a crisis that forces it to be applied, has no prospects. It is in itself less profitable than solutions that steadily aggravate and strengthen the discrepancy leading to the crisis. It is more difficult to implement. It contradicts the principles generally accepted in the industry. That is why the vast majority of experts could not agree with this solution. Moreover, they found many good reasons why this decision was completely futile. And they were right from the point of view of principles generally accepted in the automotive industry.

 

In order not to bring the revealed discrepancy to the crisis, not to aggravate it to the level where further improvement becomes impossible, it is necessary to find a solution to several dilemmas such as these:

 

  • A solution that eliminates a detected non-compliance should create conditions when this non-compliance can no longer appear and manifest...

...but at the same time, this solution should be more profitable and easier to apply than solutions prompted by generally accepted principles.

  • A solution that eliminates a revealed discrepancy should be contrary to the principles generally accepted in the industry, because following these principles will lead to the strengthening and aggravation of this discrepancy...

...but at the same time, this solution should logically stem from the principles generally accepted in the industry, so that experts accept it and can implement it effectively.

  • A solution that eliminates a detected discrepancy should remove from the practice of experts generally accepted principles that become erroneous...

...but at the same time, this solution should maintain a system of generally accepted principles in order to be effectively implemented within the existing industry and the system of training and professional development of experts.

 

These dilemmas seem insoluble, like any one. But their solutions exist, one only needs to purposefully seek for these solutions and implement them.

Financialization as an Economy Disruptor | Financial and Systemic Crises | Conclusion

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Len Kaplan

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