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Business folklore is full of stories about decision-making in stalemate, but desperate situations. As in a Russian fairy tale: `He who passes to the right will meet death. He who passes to the left will be sucked in the bog. And he who goes straight...' Who knows what awaits him ahead? In this case, the wise decision is to choose the lesser of suggested evils, and then fight it.

People always made decisions, but Decision-Making Theory was created only in 17th Century. Looks like it is not a good idea to find something new here.​

Alas, the accomplishments of Decision-Making Theory are quite poor, if we look at it from point of view of statistics (Greg A. Stevens and James Burley, 3,000 Raw Ideas = 1 Commercial Success!, Research & Technology Management, May-June 1997, Industrial Research Institute, Inc.): only one commercial success from 3,000 raw ideas, even if Stage-Gate process is used. Success rate of new product commercialization or new business development is less than 60%. 

Compared to that, the idea to guarantee success of every decision, if it is properly implemented, seems new and unusual. Is it real? Let's see.


Learn from Edison

Edison's 7 Questions



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